The Era of Specialized AI - Part I
I wrote this four part essay on how the AGI hype is distracting us from the real AI revolution - specialized AI.
Each part dives deeper on concepts that can be read independently but also offers continuity to subsequent parts. Part IV concludes with actionable approach to navigate the real AI revolution currently underway, here is the TLDR but the longer format offers many useful insights and is well worth your ten minutes :)
The AGI hype is distracting us from the real AI revolution - specialized AI. We're in the early stages of a massive model explosion, and businesses need to adapt fast. Forget replacing jobs en masse, focus on customizing AI to supercharge your existing workflows and up-skill your teams. Don't wait, start experimenting and iterating now!
Part I: The AGI Hype
It's become common to hear that AI will cause massive layoffs and societal shifts. However, it's important to examine which jobs are truly at risk and avoid oversimplifying the issue. If you dig deeper into any current layoffs (Meta, Federal Workers, NIH, etc.), the underlying causes are often more complex than simply AI replacing humans. In the case of software engineers, big tech companies over-hired for years and are now undergoing a correction. While AI can assist with coding tasks, it's not yet sophisticated enough to fully replace human developers. Code is a living thing that needs to be monitored, updated, and adapted as user needs evolve. Even in the non-tech layoffs it is unclear how AI is being used reliably and effectively. Current AI still requires significant human oversight.
The leap from task-level AI proficiency to declaring "AGI is here" feels premature. It's like saying that because we have the Wright Brothers moment in AI, we'll all be traveling to space in the next few years. Just as the first flight didn't lead to immediate space travel, the current capabilities of AI don't guarantee the imminent arrival of AGI. And we don't have a single system that is truly autonomous - transportation, healthcare, banking, education - because AGI, even if you believe it is coming (I believe it is a distant and vague ambition), is not enough to bring autonomy to run business organizations, human societies or governments. I would urge caution about believing the hype and instead focus on understanding and translating the real potential of current AI technologies into your business opportunities.
The Impact on the Workforce
It's important to acknowledge that AI will likely impact the workforce in significant ways, even if it doesn't achieve true AGI. Certain tasks and roles will be automated, while others will evolve to require new skills and knowledge. It is essential to focus our current bandwidth towards adapting through up-skilling, re-skilling, and fostering a culture of testing and iterating responsibly and filter out the hype and misinformation surrounding AI.
“The future is being made out of the present, so the best way to take care of the future is to take care of the present moment. This is logical and clear. Spending a lot of time speculating and worrying about the future is totally useless. We can only take care of our future by taking care of the present moment, because the future is made out of only one substance: the present. Only if you are anchored in the present can you prepare well for the future. Although”
- Thích Nhất Hạnh, Vietnamese Zen Buddhist monk, teacher, author, poet and peace activist.